The Hot Questions

Illawarra Mercury

Tuesday June 3, 2008

A cup of coffee with GREG ELLIS

MERCURY business editor GREG ELLIS met Miltonbrook managing director Neville Fredericks. Neville, the man behind the new Tullimbar community, has a 20-year vision to link Newcastle, Gosford, Sydney, Wollongong, Nowra and Canberra by a very fast train. He proposes six-to-eight storey accommodation near major transport nodes and walkable self-sufficient communities further out.

He says society is going to face major changes as oil supplies begin to run out and global warming becomes more pressing.

"We have go to stop using our car for every need. My philosophy here is to reduce car usage and go back to heavy rail and high-speed rail which would be a much greater investment particularly in the area where we have the highest concentration of population in Australia - the Hunter, Central Coast, Sydney Metro, Illawarra and Canberra. Those areas are too close for really efficient air transport. It is only a 20-minute hop from Canberra to Sydney but there is an hour at each end at the airport."

Neville said Australia had to move towards a new electric age as the country lost access to cheap carbon based fuels.

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GEWhat impact is the increasing price of fuel going to have on cities with populations heavily dependent on car transport?

NFThere is a key relationship between the urban form of a city and the average consumption of fuel per capita. For example, Atlanta Georgia, one of the worst cities in the world for sprawl with car-based everything, has 103 gigajoules (GJ) of fuel use per capita per annum. That is the worst. American cities with urban sprawl have got some really bad circumstances but if you look at the average Canadian city it is about 35GJ per capita per annum and the average Australian city is about 30 or 31. The average European city is about 17 and in Hong Kong and Tokyo it is about 8. If the price of fuel doubles it is going to be catastrophic for the cities who have got sprawl and that haven't got the ability to change their transportation mode. They are locked in through their urban form into personal transportation instead of mass transit. So the obligation our societies have, if we are going to deal with the future effectively is to have more investment in heavy rail and high speed rail inter city but also combine that with our urban policy. You have to have urban development along those transport routes. It is not rocket science.

GEPeople are already feeling the pain of rising fuel prices in the Illawarra. What happens if they keep rising?

NFWe are still very cheap in Australia. Wait till it is $3 a litre. Already in America there is stress on the outer edge of the big cities that are totally car dependent with the litre of petrol for the litre of milk syndrome ... because you have got to travel 5km there and 5km back. So we have to shift away from that ... and do what we are going here (at Tullimbar) which is a compact township. It takes a while to build and develop to fruition where it will really work. There is a direct relationship between density and fuel use and actually the densest part of Sydney where there is heavy rail performs just like European cities with 17 gigajoules of fuel use per capita per annum. So we just need more of that if we are going to be robust into the future economically as a society in Australia. We have to work harder at this. I think as a nation we have got to start spending money on this.

GEIs there an advantage in cities being located along a narrow strip of coastal land like we have in Newcastle, Gosford, Sydney, Wollongong and Nowra?

NFA lineal experience is the best and we have that.

GEHow much fuel do you expect to save at Tullimbar?

NFWe (Tullimbar) are going to have a 30 per cent reduction in total vehicle miles travelled here per household. That is the American experience for these walkable communities. You have got a really low carbon footprint just by living here.

GEWhy do you think the coastal route for a new fast rail service, turning west towards Canberra south of Nowra, is a better option than a Southern Tablelands route taking in Moss Vale and Goulburn?

NFI would argue strongly for the opportunity of a major city emerging in the regional centre of the Shoalhaven connected to high speed rail. One of the key issues there is firstly Australians prefer to be on the coast and secondly our big challenge in Australia is water and it is very hard to get large volumes of water up there on the tablelands. Goulburn had a crisis last year, whereas the Shoalhaven River is a vast river system. Shoalhaven mayor Greg Watson told me the city only takes two per cent of the river flow.

GEWhat should happen close to the transport nodes/terminals?

NFIn a broad urban sense, within 800m of every rail station we should have six storey buildings if we are going to properly accommodate our population in the future in a low-energy usage environment.

GEAre there any signs of such changes in urban planning already occurring?

NFI am encouraged that the planning regulators are heading this way. The big problem is dumping the old regulation. GEHow important is global warming to the debate?

NFThe world has transformed in the last year with the global warming debate and the escalation in fuel price. Those two are working hand in hand to say we have to change if we are going to perform well as a nation in terms of our economic efficiency and have a low carbon footprint. Fuel use per capita in Europe of 17 gigajoules per capita per annum is half of what it is in Australia. So all I am arguing for is a more compact living environment.

GEHow far do we have to think ahead in planning and paying for such change?

NFThese have a 20-year horizon. Incorrect continuing investment in highway systems is not going to solve the problems of congestion in the city or fuel prices. If you put global warming, the fuel prices and the stress of congestion all together we have to change. One freeway lane delivers 2500 people per hour. A dedicated bus lane is about 8000, a light rail can do about 15,000 and heavy rail 30,000 to 50,000 per hour. When the price of fuel becomes a problem people will want to change their way of doing things.

GEHow important is this?

NFThis is a big picture debate we have got to have. If we don't educate people they will just sit in their cars and do their thing. It may take a few years to work itself through.

GEHow will we pay for these changes?

NF Instead of reacting to the symptoms of congestion and frustration that emerge in our cities we have to take some visionary steps. If you say it is going to cost $20 billion it will never happen. But if you say it is going to take 20 years and we are going to put $1 billion a year into it in a national perspective it is do-able. Especially when you look at what our forbears did in the 1880s to bring a major rail from Sydney to Nowra with hardly any population. I am personally developing some anxieties that we are not dealing with the big issues to prepare for the new way the world is going to be.

© 2008 Illawarra Mercury

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